Tariff prices arrive slowly, then leave
The consumer-price mechanics of tariffs are a level shift, not permanent inflation — and the exit is as gradual as the entry.
Priya Vaithilingam · August 1, 2026
Economic data as it is published: inflation prints, payroll and unemployment figures, purchasing managers indexes, industrial production, trade balances and central bank decisions. Items give the consensus expectation, the actual figure and the revision history, then note which sectors the surprise reaches first. For anyone reading releases on the day.
The consumer-price mechanics of tariffs are a level shift, not permanent inflation — and the exit is as gradual as the entry.
Priya Vaithilingam · August 1, 2026
After the Supreme Court voided the IEEPA tariffs, the collections stopped and the refund question opened — a rare case of revenue falling by court order.
Priya Vaithilingam · July 9, 2026
Federal interest costs have crossed a trillion dollars a year — the line item that grows itself and narrows every other choice.
Owen Blackwood · June 16, 2026
The monthly deficit number is noisy, tariff-distorted, and routinely misread — the geneva of trade statistics is the quarterly detail.
Owen Blackwood · May 25, 2026
Purchasing managers answer before the statistics agencies publish — fast, revealing, and soft in exactly the ways that matter.
Priya Vaithilingam · May 2, 2026