Economy News
Interest now outruns most of the budget
Federal interest costs have crossed a trillion dollars a year — the line item that grows itself and narrows every other choice.
Owen Blackwood
Economy News
Economic data as it is published: inflation prints, payroll and unemployment figures, purchasing managers indexes, industrial production, trade balances and central bank decisions. Items give the consensus expectation, the actual figure and the revision history, then note which sectors the surprise reaches first. For anyone reading releases on the day.
Scheduled indicators and unscheduled shocks: inflation prints, payrolls, PMI readings, rate decisions and revisions that change the earlier picture.
Economy News
Trade deficit data reward patience
The monthly deficit number is noisy, tariff-distorted, and routinely misread — the geneva of trade statistics is the quarterly detail.
Owen Blackwood
Economy News
PMI surveys read the factory's mood early
Purchasing managers answer before the statistics agencies publish — fast, revealing, and soft in exactly the ways that matter.
Priya Vaithilingam
Economy News
The yield curve signals, then it apologizes
Curve inversions have preceded most modern recessions — with delays long enough to bankrupt the impatient and lulls that never paid off.
Priya Vaithilingam
Economy News
Jobs day rewards the prepared reader
The employment report arrives at 8:30 with two surveys inside it, and the discipline is knowing which line answers which question.
Priya Vaithilingam